2025 Canadian election

[ionelv]

The simple math: NDP lost 1.8 million votes (vs last election), Greens lost 150k, BQ lost 100k, PPC lost 700k, Liberals gained 3million and CPC gained 2.3 million votes. Turnout was 68.7% (6.4pp higher than last election or 2.5 million more votes: 19.5 vs 17).

Some analyst was commenting on CBC Radio 1 that many previous NDPers voted PC this election (especially blue-collar white men 18-34). If we assume a gross 100% NDP/Green/BQ switch to Liberal and 100% PPC switch to CPC, then Liberals took 40% of new voters and CPC took 60% which should not be all that surprising given the post-COVID/post-trucker era and F*ck Trudeau rhetoric ratcheting.

At this rate, next post-Trump election might bring CPC to power, especially if Carney fumbles the ball or NDP reverts to the mean. Of course, all this assumes that all of 47's Northern wet dreams evaporate by the next election and bilateral US/CA relations return to somewhat normal. Potential disruptors: global recession, RE market collapse, high unemployment, low oil prices, high tariffs, runaway AI, worsening weather events, high inflation, stingy bank lending, one or more Big 6 bank collapses/down-spirals.

Comments

[ionelv]

QC elected 30+ more Lib MPs than CPC MPs. So, hypothetically, if QC were to declare independence a day before this election, CPC would have had 133 seats, the Libs 125 seats out of total 265 seats, so Cons would have had a majority govt in a Quebecless Canada.