Aziz Huq (a U of Chicago constitutional scholar) has a sobering Atlantic article on the recent US evolution towards a dual state, a term coined by Ernst Fraenkel between 1938 and 1941 from his experiences living in Nazi Germany as a Jewish lawyer (who served in the German Army on the Eastern front during WWI).

Excerpts from the article:


Title: AMERICA IS WATCHING THE RISE OF A DUAL STATE

Subtitle: For most people, the courts will continue to operate as usual—until they don’t.

As Fraenkel explained it, a lawless dictatorship does not arise simply by snuffing out the ordinary legal system of rules, procedures, and precedents. To the contrary, that system—which he called the “normative state”—remains in place while dictatorial power spreads across society. What happens, Fraenkel explained, is insidious. Rather than completely eliminating the normative state, the Nazi regime slowly created a parallel zone in which “unlimited arbitrariness and violence unchecked by any legal guarantees” reigned freely. In this domain, which Fraenkel called the “prerogative state,” ordinary law didn’t apply.

The key here is that this prerogative state does not immediately and completely overrun the normative state. Rather, Fraenkel argued, dictatorships create a lawless zone that runs alongside the normative state. The two states cohabit uneasily and unstably. On any given day, people or cases could be jerked out of the normative state and into the prerogative one.

What the Trump administration and its allies are trying to build now, however, is not. The list of measures purpose-built to cleave off a domain in which the law does not apply grows by the day: the pardons that bless and invite insurrectionary violence; the purges of career lawyers at the Justice Department and in the Southern District of New York, inspectors general across the government, and senior FBI agents; the attorney general’s command that lawyers obey the president over their own understanding of the Constitution; the appointment of people such as Kash Patel and Dan Bongino, who seem to view their loyalty to the president as more compelling than their constitutional oath; the president’s declaration that he and the attorney general are the sole authoritative interpreters of federal law for the executive branch; the transformation of ordinary spending responsibilities into discretionary tools to punish partisan foes; the stripping of security clearances from perceived enemies and opponents; the threat of criminal prosecutions for speech deemed unfavorable by the president; and the verbal attacks on judges for enforcing the law.

For that reason, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Trump’s lawyers—despite running roughshod over Congress, the states, the press, and the civil service—were somewhat slower to defy the federal courts, and have fast-tracked cases to the Supreme Court, seeking a judicial imprimatur for novel presidential powers. The courts, unlike the legislature, remain useful to an autocrat in a dual state.
Building a dual state need not end in genocide: Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore have followed the same model of the dual state that Fraenkel described, though neither has undertaken a mass-killing operation as the Nazis did. Their deepest similarity, rather, is that both are intolerant of political dissent and leave the overwhelming majority of citizens alone. The peril of the dual state lies precisely in this capacity for targeted suppression. Most people can ignore the construction of the prerogative state simply because it does not touch their lives. They can turn away while dissidents and scapegoats lose their political liberty. But once the prerogative state is built, as Fraenkel’s writing and experience suggest, it can swallow anyone.

As expected, Trump had it in for EVs as Battery Technology reports.
Excerpts:
At a Glance

* Tariffs on EV components raised costs for manufacturers and slowed infrastructure development nationwide
* Federal EV tax credits terminated in September 2025 reducing consumer purchase incentives significantly
* NEVI charging program froze approvals delaying corridor fast-charging station deployment across states

Exactly one year ago today, Donald Trump was inaugurated as US President for the second time. One year on, it’s worth noting how his 2025 policy reset has reshaped the US EV landscape. Tariffs lifted costs across vehicles, batteries, and charging hardware. Federal infrastructure momentum stalled. Regulatory drivers that encouraged EV adoption were weakened. And incentives that helped close price gaps for consumers and fleets were curtailed or timed out.

In aggregate, these moves narrowed near‑term competitiveness for domestic EV makers as Chinese OEMs continued scaling volumes and cutting costs abroad—pressuring US incumbents at precisely the moment the global market is accelerating.

Here is the timeline of eleven specific government actions undertaken last year that worked against the interests of EV developers and customers.

1. January 20, 2025: Day‑One executive order reorients energy and EV policy
2. February 6–7, 2025: FHWA freezes NEVI plan approvals and new obligations
3. Early March 2025: Federal fleet retreat from EVs; charger deactivations
4. April 2, 2025 (effective April 5): Global “reciprocal” tariff regime
5. April 18, 2025 (effective May 19): FHWA repeals highway GHG performance measure
6. June 11, 2025: NHTSA “resets” CAFE, excluding EVs and credit trading
7. June 12, 2025: CRA resolutions target California’s EPA waivers
8. July 4, 2025: “One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act” curtails EV credits; removes CAFE penalties
9. July 30, 2025 (effective August 29): De minimis duty‑free entry suspended
10. August 1, 2025 — EPA Proposes to Rescind the Endangerment Finding and Tailpipe GHG Standards
11. December 5, 2025 — NHTSA Proposes SAFE Rule III, Weakening Light‑Duty CAFE and Ending Credit Trading

2026: The rest of the world moves forward as US automakers navigate constraints

The 2025 data paint a clear gap: EVs were roughly 11% of U.S. new‑car sales versus nearly one in four across Europe (EU BEV share 16.9% year‑to‑date by November) and about 60% in China—evidence that mainstream adoption is advancing faster abroad. Charging infrastructure tells the same story: China added hundreds of thousands of public fast chargers in 2024–2025, lifting public charging capacity per EV above 3 kW, while the US reached only about 65,000 DC fast‑charging ports by November 2025. And mature markets such as Norway are already near‑fully electric—95.9% of new‑car sales in 2025—underscoring how much ground the US must make up.

And just this week, Canada signed a strategic agreement with China that opens the door to higher-range, lower‑cost Chinese‑made EVs entering the Canadian market under a 6.1% MFN tariff, with an initial quota of 49,000 vehicles and an affordability target that reserves half of the quota for EVs priced under CAD $35,000 by 2030. This development increases competitive pressure at America’s doorstep.

The race for EV market share was never going to be easy for US automakers. It’s too bad the federal actions of 2025 make it even harder for them to keep pace.
In days of yore, man used to worship the bull, the snake, the pig, the monkey and the horse. In our days, they returned to that type of worshipping, with a twist: modern man worships those beasts and especially their excretions, lots of horsesh*t, mostly bullsh*t and is as happy as a pig in sh*t. कालोऽस्मि लोकक्षयकृत्प्रवृद्धो
This BBC story feels like an overelaborate story about a bunch of Settlers of Catan players realizing that the leading player is about to win the game, so they agree to only trade with each other and use the robber mainly on the leading player so as to prevent the inevitable. Hmmm…

PS: One of the other players (let’s call him Tiny Hands) is a wolf in sheep clothing of course, was in the lead himself most of the game and is now trying to snatch victory from Winnie the Pooh, but that’s a minor detail.
Given the opposing China trade priorities between (Ontario) steel/aluminum/EVs and (Western) agricultural exports, it is obvious that the Western provinces (e.g. Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba) and Ontario can't really cohabitate within the federation if they want to both export to China and protect local industry. From FinPost/Bloomberg (with my [] clarifications around "Canada" when it is certain provinces that are favored over others):

Some senior officials in Canada say it’s time to repair trade relations with China, arguing US tariff policy is pushing them to deal with Asia’s largest economy.

Last year, the Canadian government put tariffs of 100% on Chinese-made electric vehicles and 25% on steel and aluminum products, aligning with what the Biden administration had done. The move also protected [Ontario] Canada’s auto industry.

China struck back with retaliatory 100% tariffs on Canadian [Western provinces] canola oil and pea products, and a 25% levy on pork and seafood — a move that underscored the sharp deterioration in ties between Beijing and Ottawa in recent years.
I just finished watching One Child Nation and a few things stood out:
1. As the narator (Nanfu) astutely observed, US abortion restrictions and China's abortion enforcement are truly the same thing: exerting control over women bodies.
2. As China shifted from their One-child policy (1979-2015) to a Two-child policy and more recently to a Three-child policy, I thought that maybe they should just simplify the whole process and stop wasting brain power by simply having a periodic draw in which they pick a number between 0 and 3 that will decide how many children each family can have and once a family has their first child they get locked in at that year's draw? If the drawn number is not whole, they can either round up or down, and/or randomly pool together multiple families and let them decide how to trade amongst them the fractional parts or create a market for fractional parts (e.g. if draw reveals 1.3, group three families which would be allowed a total of 4 kids, or if the drawn number is 0.25, then four families would be allowed only 1 child total). Of course, if a multiple birth exceeds the quota, they would have to give away the extra kid(s) to a well-moneyed desperate Western family that was very deserving.</s>
3. Some of the stories were harrowing, e.g. Peng Wang's discarded fetuses or the 2011 story about the Duans, the abandoned baby girls and the orphanage networks that adopted out thousands of possibly abducted babies, a story picked up by the NY Times.
Two days ago, BBC reported that there was a mystery and a potential power play by Mr Xi at China's 20th Congress. Given that Mr Hu is not a member of the Politburo's Standing Committee since 2013 and that he was sitting next to Mr Xi and looked confused, I think BBC is way off the mark and a much simpler explanation exists: Mr Hu has dementia and was sitting in the wrong place and was completely lost and had to be escorted away. I am quite surprised at the poor coverage by BBC on this sad non-story.


Rome statute: red (non-signatory), orange (prev/retracted signatory), purple (withdrawn), yellow (not ratified)

Rome statute: red (non-signatory), orange (prev/retracted signatory), purple (withdrawn), yellow (not ratified)



3 of 5 permanent veto-wielding members of the UN pseudo-Security Council are not signatories to the Rome statute. For US, Clinton signed but never intended to ratify it. Russia signed in 2000, but withdrew in late 2016 after it was preliminarily found to have run afoul in 2014 re: Ukraine. China and India never signed even. Of the top 10 most populous countries, only 4 are signatories (Nigeria, Brazil, Bangladesh and Mexico). At least 2/3 of the world population lives in non-signatory countries.

Russia is a perfect example of mass opinion manipulation and the war in Ukraine is perfect litmus test to underscore this sad truth.

Edit: Some may note that China is a very strong contender for that top spot, and, in general, large polities have a very high correlation with opinion manipulation and self-delusion (e.g. UN, India, USA, EU, Brazil, IMF, WB, other supranational orgs). The side effect of these artificialities is of course jerky and often unpredictable self-corrections after long periods of drifting, similar to mean reversion processes. Perhaps, not unsurprisingly, the stock market exhibits and shares very similar divergent/convergent processes and cycles (at micro and macro levels) with our largest polities.

One of the best articles I read on the China vs USA rivalry that puts it into context is a 2015 article in The Atlantic. The framing through Thucydides Trap alone is worth it (with pure gravy from the Belfer Center analysis of 16 global power changing of the guard in the past 500 years or Crowe's 1907 memorandum about the Germany economy overtaking England).


Thucydides chronicled objective changes in relative power, but he also focused on perceptions of change among the leaders of Athens and Sparta—and how this led each to strengthen alliances with other states in the hopes of counterbalancing the other. But entanglement runs both ways. When conflict broke out between the second-tier city-states of Corinth and Corcyra (now Corfu), Sparta felt it necessary to come to Corinth’s defense, which left Athens little choice but to back its ally. The Peloponnesian War followed. When it ended 30 years later, Sparta was the nominal victor. But both states lay in ruin, leaving Greece vulnerable to the Persians.

In 1980, China had 10 percent of America’s GDP as measured by purchasing power parity; 7 percent of its GDP at current U.S.-dollar exchange rates; and 6 percent of its exports. The foreign currency held by China, meanwhile, was just one-sixth the size of America’s reserves. The answers for the second column: By 2014, those figures were 101 percent of GDP; 60 percent at U.S.-dollar exchange rates; and 106 percent of exports. China’s reserves today are 28 times larger than America’s.

Read more... )
The Snapchat boss opined on China's rise. I have two comments on that:
1. Government heavy investment in infrastructure and research does pay off.
2. Minimal economic drag from short-term return spending (e.g. outsized military spending, heavy and growing rent seeking sectors such as govt, lawyers, lobbyists, police, hedge funds, banks, general middlemen layers that add little value) has a multiplier effect.

I dreamt about an interaction with the pope of which I remember two scenes:
1. I went into a heavily fortified castle in which I met a bunch of armoured guards and an armoured very rotund pope. They all had round helmets with 2+ ft long pole atop their helmets with a small cross on top. The pole length varied.
2. A cardinal taking a bath was whipping someone trying to extract some secrets. Also, a jet of water was continuously hitting the captive washing away the blood of his whipped back.

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