I just finished watching One Child Nation and a few things stood out:
1. As the narator (Nanfu) astutely observed, US abortion restrictions and China's abortion enforcement are truly the same thing: exerting control over women bodies.
2. As China shifted from their One-child policy (1979-2015) to a Two-child policy and more recently to a Three-child policy, I thought that maybe they should just simplify the whole process and stop wasting brain power by simply having a periodic draw in which they pick a number between 0 and 3 that will decide how many children each family can have and once a family has their first child they get locked in at that year's draw? If the drawn number is not whole, they can either round up or down, and/or randomly pool together multiple families and let them decide how to trade amongst them the fractional parts or create a market for fractional parts (e.g. if draw reveals 1.3, group three families which would be allowed a total of 4 kids, or if the drawn number is 0.25, then four families would be allowed only 1 child total). Of course, if a multiple birth exceeds the quota, they would have to give away the extra kid(s) to a well-moneyed desperate Western family that was very deserving.</s>
3. Some of the stories were harrowing, e.g. Peng Wang's discarded fetuses or the 2011 story about the Duans, the abandoned baby girls and the orphanage networks that adopted out thousands of possibly abducted babies, a story picked up by the NY Times.
Two days ago, BBC reported that there was a mystery and a potential power play by Mr Xi at China's 20th Congress. Given that Mr Hu is not a member of the Politburo's Standing Committee since 2013 and that he was sitting next to Mr Xi and looked confused, I think BBC is way off the mark and a much simpler explanation exists: Mr Hu has dementia and was sitting in the wrong place and was completely lost and had to be escorted away. I am quite surprised at the poor coverage by BBC on this sad non-story.
Russia is a perfect example of mass opinion manipulation and the war in Ukraine is perfect litmus test to underscore this sad truth.

Edit: Some may note that China is a very strong contender for that top spot, and, in general, large polities have a very high correlation with opinion manipulation and self-delusion (e.g. UN, India, USA, EU, Brazil, IMF, WB, other supranational orgs). The side effect of these artificialities is of course jerky and often unpredictable self-corrections after long periods of drifting, similar to mean reversion processes. Perhaps, not unsurprisingly, the stock market exhibits and shares very similar divergent/convergent processes and cycles (at micro and macro levels) with our largest polities.

One of the best articles I read on the China vs USA rivalry that puts it into context is a 2015 article in The Atlantic. The framing through Thucydides Trap alone is worth it (with pure gravy from the Belfer Center analysis of 16 global power changing of the guard in the past 500 years or Crowe's 1907 memorandum about the Germany economy overtaking England).


Thucydides chronicled objective changes in relative power, but he also focused on perceptions of change among the leaders of Athens and Sparta—and how this led each to strengthen alliances with other states in the hopes of counterbalancing the other. But entanglement runs both ways. When conflict broke out between the second-tier city-states of Corinth and Corcyra (now Corfu), Sparta felt it necessary to come to Corinth’s defense, which left Athens little choice but to back its ally. The Peloponnesian War followed. When it ended 30 years later, Sparta was the nominal victor. But both states lay in ruin, leaving Greece vulnerable to the Persians.

In 1980, China had 10 percent of America’s GDP as measured by purchasing power parity; 7 percent of its GDP at current U.S.-dollar exchange rates; and 6 percent of its exports. The foreign currency held by China, meanwhile, was just one-sixth the size of America’s reserves. The answers for the second column: By 2014, those figures were 101 percent of GDP; 60 percent at U.S.-dollar exchange rates; and 106 percent of exports. China’s reserves today are 28 times larger than America’s.

Read more... )
The Snapchat boss opined on China's rise. I have two comments on that:
1. Government heavy investment in infrastructure and research does pay off.
2. Minimal economic drag from short-term return spending (e.g. outsized military spending, heavy and growing rent seeking sectors such as govt, lawyers, lobbyists, police, hedge funds, banks, general middlemen layers that add little value) has a multiplier effect.

I dreamt about an interaction with the pope of which I remember two scenes:
1. I went into a heavily fortified castle in which I met a bunch of armoured guards and an armoured very rotund pope. They all had round helmets with 2+ ft long pole atop their helmets with a small cross on top. The pole length varied.
2. A cardinal taking a bath was whipping someone trying to extract some secrets. Also, a jet of water was continuously hitting the captive washing away the blood of his whipped back.

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