ionelv | Entries tagged with war

BBC has an article about the effectiveness of US bombing of Iran's nuclear sites. This sentence caught my eye:

Even so, the centrifuge machines, which spin at high speeds to enrich uranium, are highly sensitive which means the explosion will likely have crashed many of them by sending them spinning off their axis.

I wondered: would it have had the same effect if US simply dropped large boulders on those targets? Maybe Israel can build some large trebuchets or repurpose their David's Sling Into an offensive system and simply lob some "David stones" at those sites periodically?

BBC reports on the dire situation in Gaza. Excerpts:

The IPC says that 470,000 Gazans, 22% of the population, are in a classification it calls "Phase 5 – catastrophe." The IPC defines it as a condition in which "at least one in five households experience an extreme lack of food and face starvation resulting in destitution, extremely critical levels of acute malnutrition and death."

In practical terms, the phase five classification, the most acute used by the IPC, estimates that "71,000 children and more than 17,000 mothers will need urgent treatment for acute malnutrition".

Thousands of tons of the food, medical aid and humanitarian supplies that they need are sitting only a few miles away, on the other side of the border in Egypt.

[…]

In the air force reserve, 1,200 pilots signed an open letter saying that prolonging the war served mainly "political and personal interests and not security ones".

[…]

The allegation that the total denial of food to Gazan civilians is more evidence of an Israeli genocide against Palestinians has outraged Benjamin Netanyahu, his government and many Israeli citizens. It produced rare political unity in Israel. The leader of the opposition Yair Lapid, normally a stern critic of Netanyahu, condemned "a moral collapse and a moral disaster" at the ICJ.

Genocide is defined as the destruction, in whole or in part, of a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group. The International Criminal Court (ICC), a separate body, has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defence minister on war crimes charges, which they reject. The three Hamas leaders who were also the subject of ICC warrants have all been killed by Israel.

Bernie brought up in the Senate the direness of the situation the Gaza civilian population is in. The response from Sen Bernie Moreno was predictable. It's as if the two senators live in parallel universes which reflects exactly the chasm between Israel and the Palestinians.

Ionel posts meme of road sign with "Welcome to CANADA: We don't have S. Africans telling us what to do".

Sean mumbles something about the scenario in which Canada becomes the 51st state.

Ionel: You are right: there is a non-zero chance that Canada could become the 51st state and if that shit-show does happen, a South African telling us what to do is probably not going to be even in the top 5 list of my worries 🙂 If that happens, I will likely activate my EU citizenship and keep it on standby just in case...

Sean: I’m really hoping Congress is rethinking that War Powers Act thing. Just when you think he couldn’t come up with something even more unimaginable…

Ionel: Well, after taking the Gish Gallop to new heights, and elevating its use to the real world on Jan 6 (by reversing its implications while rewriting history), the Stable-Orange-Genius-Giving-Young Simps-Order-Cum-Kicking is (in)advertently expanding its uses in the realm of statecraft as well.

As to the War Powers Act of 1973, presidents have 60 or 90 days to use military force without Congressional authorization. One could argue, that neither limitation applies to Canada, Panama or Greenland, as they could all be sacked or cowed in less than 14, 7 and 1 day respectively. If by some remote chance, more time is needed, POTUS could hit pause on his military "maneuvers", reset the game clock and start over as many times as needed and/or transfer command to its patsy NATO as Obama/HRC have done in 2011 in Libya and/or simply ignore or veto any Congressional performative attempt to block his actions, as ALL presidents have done since 1973 whenever they needed more than 60 days to clean up whatever military "activity" they started all on their own.

As to strengthening Congress' war powers, some might argue that Congress has done the opposite in 2002 with AUMF (which is increasingly used to run over the comatose WPA) and more importantly, that Congress has virtually no backbone or legal muscle on taking on POTUS, especially the incoming one given the MAGA-style GOP spine self-removal or that it has any clue on how to circumvent SCOTUS from laying down even more decisions to bolster its quid-pro-quo decades-long unitary executive theory course.

It is projected that data center power consumption will increase by orders or magnitude in the near future. It is also very unlikely that this growing power consumption will be slowed down due to climate change concerns because a lot of the power is needed in the newest arm race (I.e. AI-driven cutting edge military tech) between the world’s top superpowers.

Some may find the upcoming US-China war as futile and self-destructive on so many levels (or as an inevitable showdown between the leading philosophies: ouroboros crapitalism and authoritarianism) and probably worse than previous world wars, yet, if humans are really good at something is at repeating history again and again with abandon, a self-imposed nihilistic Sisyphianism of sorts.

The irony in this latest sequel is that all the energy wasted in developing, growing and honing the latest killing machines and/or profit makers (although not dissimilar from past efforts) is conceptually not very different from all the energy wasted across millennia in developing, growing and honing power structures around (seemingly) different primitive cosmogonies and golden calves that claim primacy and their syncretic permutation (more often than not) as the unique truth about human nature and purpose.

Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.

Misc stories: Motaz Azaiza's Dec 21/22 recordkeeping, Julia Boutros's Nov 11 post, CNN's ‘Not seen since Vietnam’: Israel dropped hundreds of 2,000-pound bombs on Gaza, analysis shows + US ready to back Security Council resolution after changes to mechanism for Gaza aid, language on end to fighting (i.e. US steps up its BAU rhetoric: carrots for Israel and sticks for Palestinians), Haaretz's The Unbridgeable Gulf Between Israeli Politicians' Rhetoric and the Reality in Gaza, Times of Israel's IDF demolishes major Gaza City tunnel network hidden underneath ‘Palestine Square’, Health Ministry issues directives for medical treatment of detained Gazan terrorists (Following deaths of several Palestinians at IDF Sde Teiman medical facility, the government gives clear instructions about care for ‘illegal combatants’), JPost's Hamas's antisemitism influence is even bigger than the Nazis' - opinion.

It's been a week since the Hamas terrorist attacks against Israel that left hundreds dead and many taken as hostages and Israel declared war. Beyond the usual us vs them, democracy vs terrorism, calls to bomb Gaza into the stone age (not unlike the drum-up to war after 9/11 that dragged US into two overt wars and one forever war), there are very few voices of reason that draw on the larger context (not just what happened in the past week). Here are a few:
* Why did Hamas attack, and why now? What does it hope to gain? (The Conversation)
* Israel Gives 1.1 Million North Gazans 24 Hours To Evacuate As UN Warns Of "Calamitous Situation" (CBS)
* Beitenu's Solidarity with Palestine and Israel declaration?
* Robert Reich's Moral Clarity substack post
* How Can Left-wingers Hail Hamas Atrocities Against Israelis as 'Palestinian Resistance? (Haaretz)
* I’m Going to War for Israel. Palestinians Are Not My Enemy. (NY Times oped)

I had a few thoughts about America's future while reading this LARB exchange between Codrescu, Crăiuțu and Brădățan about American immigrants and America's evolution since 1991.

The exchange between them is a good read, although I wonder what they would have said were it not for their sunk cost fallacy (very common in immigrants from behind the Iron Curtain) and "fript cu ciorba" phenomenon. I find the whole idea of self-identifying as an American, Romanian, Ardelean, etc, a big trap and sink of energy, a mirage that only leads one away from self-actualization. Over-identifying with one's country of residence (or birth) feeds strife (that often leads to war) and even stokes smoldering genocidal tendencies within any aggrieved (usually) majority subgroup.

For humanity's sake, I hope we eventually learn to live peacefully with each other and do away with ultrapatriotism, artificial borders, skin-deep race illusions, proselytizing religions, social castes, greed, and us vs them mentalities.

As for America's future, I foresee lots of chaos and economic gloom in the coming decades with little upside potential, e.g.

increased polarization and declining standard of living wrought by a schizophrenic power seesaw between
- the party of lawyers and mega-corporations that (mostly) pretends to care about the little guy, and
- the party of those that want to own the libs while sucking up to billionaires and religious nuts,
a fizzling economic power overtaken by a fast-emerging China and that does not know how to deleverage its sky-rocketing debt burden (with incalculable long-term negative effects in US),
increasing bananization and increasingly skewed power distribution (given the increasing influence of a vampiric MICC and maniacal billionaires).

If America is to survive, something big needs to change and I mostly see dark clouds on the horizon, foreshadowing storms that will only worsen things (without even counting the slow-boiling impending climate catastrophe or the [morally legitimate] newest front of its perpetual war which will surely evolve into the much anticipated US-China War).

At the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I pointed out that the best path to end the war is to go after the head(s) of the aggressor, similar to US's Operation Vengeance in WW2. It now appears that the Ukrainians are doing exactly this: 4th Russian general killed.

As Russia fully attacked all of Ukraine, there was mention in the news of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in which supposedly US and UK provided Ukraine assurances of defending its borders. Here are its relevant parts (my emphasis added):

1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;

2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations;

3-6. [Blah]

This Memorandum will become applicable upon signature.

[...]

For Ukraine: (Signed) Leonid D. KUCHMA

For the Russian Federation: (Signed) Boris N. YELTSIN

For the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland: (Signed) John MAJOR

For the United States of America: (Signed) William J. CLINTON

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One of the best articles I read on the China vs USA rivalry that puts it into context is a 2015 article in The Atlantic. The framing through Thucydides Trap alone is worth it (with pure gravy from the Belfer Center analysis of 16 global power changing of the guard in the past 500 years or Crowe's 1907 memorandum about the Germany economy overtaking England).

Thucydides chronicled objective changes in relative power, but he also focused on perceptions of change among the leaders of Athens and Sparta—and how this led each to strengthen alliances with other states in the hopes of counterbalancing the other. But entanglement runs both ways. When conflict broke out between the second-tier city-states of Corinth and Corcyra (now Corfu), Sparta felt it necessary to come to Corinth’s defense, which left Athens little choice but to back its ally. The Peloponnesian War followed. When it ended 30 years later, Sparta was the nominal victor. But both states lay in ruin, leaving Greece vulnerable to the Persians.

In 1980, China had 10 percent of America’s GDP as measured by purchasing power parity; 7 percent of its GDP at current U.S.-dollar exchange rates; and 6 percent of its exports. The foreign currency held by China, meanwhile, was just one-sixth the size of America’s reserves. The answers for the second column: By 2014, those figures were 101 percent of GDP; 60 percent at U.S.-dollar exchange rates; and 106 percent of exports. China’s reserves today are 28 times larger than America’s.

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