2025 Canadian election
Apr. 29th, 2025 10:41 pmThe simple math: NDP lost 1.8 million votes (vs last election), Greens lost 150k, BQ lost 100k, PPC lost 700k, Liberals gained 3million and CPC gained 2.3 million votes. Turnout was 68.7% (6.4pp higher than last election or 2.5 million more votes: 19.5 vs 17).
Some analyst was commenting on CBC Radio 1 that many previous NDPers voted PC this election (especially blue-collar white men 18-34). If we assume a gross 100% NDP/Green/BQ switch to Liberal and 100% PPC switch to CPC, then Liberals took 40% of new voters and CPC took 60% which should not be all that surprising given the post-COVID/post-trucker era and F*ck Trudeau rhetoric ratcheting.
At this rate, next post-Trump election might bring CPC to power, especially if Carney fumbles the ball or NDP reverts to the mean. Of course, all this assumes that all of 47's Northern wet dreams evaporate by the next election and bilateral US/CA relations return to somewhat normal. Potential disruptors: global recession, RE market collapse, high unemployment, low oil prices, high tariffs, runaway AI, worsening weather events, high inflation, stingy bank lending, one or more Big 6 bank collapses/down-spirals.
Some analyst was commenting on CBC Radio 1 that many previous NDPers voted PC this election (especially blue-collar white men 18-34). If we assume a gross 100% NDP/Green/BQ switch to Liberal and 100% PPC switch to CPC, then Liberals took 40% of new voters and CPC took 60% which should not be all that surprising given the post-COVID/post-trucker era and F*ck Trudeau rhetoric ratcheting.
At this rate, next post-Trump election might bring CPC to power, especially if Carney fumbles the ball or NDP reverts to the mean. Of course, all this assumes that all of 47's Northern wet dreams evaporate by the next election and bilateral US/CA relations return to somewhat normal. Potential disruptors: global recession, RE market collapse, high unemployment, low oil prices, high tariffs, runaway AI, worsening weather events, high inflation, stingy bank lending, one or more Big 6 bank collapses/down-spirals.
Election 2016
Mar. 30th, 2025 07:12 amI wrote all of these.
Nov 11, 2016:
Bernie Sanders Just Blasted the Democratic Party for Trump’s Victory
Nov 9, 2016:
Oct 9-10, 2016:
Aug 3, 2016:
Jul 29, 2016:
Nov 11, 2016:
I fully agree with Bernie Sanders' position. Clinton lost for many reasons, one of which is the strong shift to the right of the Democratic Party that has peaked with Bill Clinton and Obama and is still happening today, in large part courtesy of:
1. the superdelegate system which has picked a corrupt pro-Wall Street insider over an unabashed pro-working class populist, and also in part by
2. controlling prevailing narratives in the public discourse, e.g. free trade mythology, treasury-draining foreign policy positions, Wall Street treated with kid gloves after policies and actions which have left tens of millions homeless and poorer, half-ass social programs that keep bankrupting more Americans every day and shift the poverty, education and war costs to the middle class instead of the rich, etc.
Hillary's pivot to the left in the general election was seen as hollow by many as she is of the same fabric as her husband and Obama which have not done anything in the past 20 years when they had the White House and Congress beyond enriching themselves and throwing crumbs to the masses.
I will agree that the Democrats were forced to shift to the right starting with the Reagan era and after the GOP's nearly complete anexation and appropiation of America's libidinal core (i.e. manifest destiny patriotism bordering on racism, jingoism and over-reaching militarism, family/Christian values in public policy that are often homophobic and mysoginistic, tough on crime/illegal immigration stances that have made a mockery of human rights values, conservative fiscal policy save for the military iceberg-sized spending).
The Democrats have been playing catch up with the GOP since 1984 and they have only temporarily borrowed the White House when the right was split (1992) or when the economy faltered (1992 and 2008). They have not projected a strong countervailing narrative to the GOP narrative and they will continue to suffer in the wilderness until they redefine their message and who they are really fighting for.
Continuing down this path of being pro-working class in rhetoric, but simply GOP-lite in practice will not bode well for the future of the Democratic Party.
"You cannot be a party which on one hand says we’re in favor of working people, we’re in favor of the needs of young people but we don’t quite have the courage to take on Wall Street and the billionaire class,” Sanders wrote today. “People do not believe that. You’ve got to decide which side you’re on.”
Bernie Sanders Just Blasted the Democratic Party for Trump’s Victory
Nov 9, 2016:
It looks like the independents voted mainly Libertarian and partly Green (instead of Dem as in the past two presidential elections) and the main reason that I can see for this change is HRC's political baggage especially as highlighted lately by Comey and wikileaks. That or senile dementia is a more serious and fast advancing epidemic than previously thought. There is also a pattern here: Reagan, W, Trump, ... Elmer Fudd?
Oct 9-10, 2016:
Watched the debate live on BBC4 and I am amazed that those two were the best the two parties could put forward. They did the nearly impossible: they managed to lower to bar even further than the Bush-Gore debates, especially Agent Orange.
I just realized that a more appropriate ending to last night's debate would have been the revelation that HRC is actually Lisa (played by Laura Vandervoort in the V remake) still getting used to her human skin but getting better at expressing human emotion, and Double Agent Orange is actually Anna, the queen bee of the V species...
Aug 3, 2016:
I am a Bernie Bro 100%, I think Hillary is just another cheap band aid for what ails America and up until now I was still considering whether I should vote for HRC or not. After this revelation, I know that I MUST vote for Hillary or I won't ever forgive myself: "Trump asked why he couldn't just use nuclear weapons 3 times in a national security briefing"
Jul 29, 2016:
Best signal-to-noise ratio post on DNC leaks (even if Gucifer 2.0 was not the only leaker): Gucifer 2.0
Ieri, KHI a publicat un comunicat de presă ce încearcă să-l îngroape pe Georgescu la turul 2. Rămâne de văzut dacă prinde…
Calin Georgescu
Nov. 25th, 2024 07:51 pmFrom RFI.FR it appears that his campaign was a successful astroturfing campaign and a "quantum" effect of the observer changing the experiment by simply observing:
Rep: În această perioadă s-a vorbit foarte des despre fermele de troli. Aceste postări vin din partea unor oameni? Sunt conturi reale? Ce ați descoperit?
ACL: Sunt foarte multe. Noi am analizat cât am putut aceste conturi. Am văzut că o parte dintre aceste conturi sunt persoane reale. Au fotografii, se vede după tipul de postări pe care le fac pe conturile lor sau că erau activi dinainte.
Dar există și foarte multe pagini, conturi care se vede din titlu și de la fotografia de profil că nu ar fi o persoană reală. Dacă te uiți în istoricul conturilor poți vedea că ele au fost activate de puțin timp și că principalul lor scop este să inunde TikTok-ul cu #CălinGeorgescu.
Nu aș putea spune că este 100% o fabrică de troli, că tot e la modă acum să vorbim despre asta. E ceva combinat între persoane reale, fani și niște conturi nou făcute tocmai pentru asta.
...
Rep: Practic îl „ajutați” să crească și în acest moment. Dar ca mecanism așa funcționează?
ACL: Exact ăsta este modul de funcționare al mecanismului...
PBS Frontline has a two-hour documentary on Harris vs Trump (transcript, credits). Here are the people that spoke or got replayed (in decreasing order of mentions):
99 NARRATOR
55 DONALD TRUMP
51 KAMALA HARRIS
34 MALE NEWSREADER
34 FEMALE NEWSREADER
19 MARC FISHER
15 JAMILAH KING
11 JOE GAROFOLI
11 ALAN MARCUS
10 NOAH BIERMAN
9 PETER BAKER
8 ROGER STONE
8 PAULA WHITE
8 MICHAEL D’ANTONIO
8 CAROL LEONNIG
8 NEWT GINGRICH
7 MARY TRUMP
7 MALE VOICE
7 MALE REPORTER
7 GWENDA BLAIR
6 STACEY JOHNSON-BATISTE
6 SCOTT SHAFER
6 RONA BARRETT
6 COURTNEY SUBRAMANIAN
5 TIMOTHY O’BRIEN
5 TAL KOPAN
5 SUSAN GLASSER
5 MARIE BRENNER
5 DEBBIE MESLOH
5 CROWD
5 BARACK OBAMA
5 ASHLEY ETIENNE
4 WANDA KAGAN
4 TONY SCHWARTZ
4 LESTER HOLT
4 JILL LOUIS
4 FEMALE REPORTER
4 ELAINA PLOTT CALABRO
4 DAVID MARCUS
4 BRAD PARSCALE
4 ANDREA DEW STEELE
4 BRIAN BROKAW
3 WILLIAM BARR
3 MALE RADIO REPORTER
3 JOE BIDEN
3 JEFF SESSIONS
3 CAROLE PORTER
3 BRETT KAVANAUGH
3 BARBARA WALTERS
2 OPRAH WINFREY
2 OMAROSA MANIGAULT NEWMAN
2 MALE EVANGELICAL PASTOR
2 LOUISE SUNSHINE
2 KEN AULETTA
2 KAREN GIBBS
2 JONATHAN KARL
2 JOHN BOLTON
2 JIM DOWD
2 JANE MAYER
2 GIL DURAN
2 EUGENE ROBINSON
2 DAN MORAIN
2 BRIAN NELSON
2 ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI
2 ANDERSON COOPER
2 ACE SMITH
2 LAPHONZA BUTLER
1 WILLIE BROWN
1 WHOOPI GOLDBERG
1 WESLEY LOWERY
1 TERRENCE HALLINAN
1 TARINI PARTI
1 SUPREME COURT JUSTICE SONIA SOTOMAYOR
1 ROY COHN
1 ROHINI KOSOGLU
1 NIKKI HASKELL
1 MICHAEL KRANISH
1 MARTIN LUTHER KING JR.
1 MALE TALK SHOW HOST
1 MALE SPEAKER
1 MALE RALLY ANNOUNCER
1 MALE DEBATE MODERATOR
1 MALE CAMPAIGN ATTENDEE
1 MALE APPRENTICE CONTESTANT
1 LATEEFAH SIMON
1 KELLYANNE CONWAY
1 HEATHER FONG
1 GWEN IFILL
1 GRAYDON CARTER
1 FOX NEWS GUEST
1 FOX NEWS ANCHOR
1 FEMALE VOICE
1 FEMALE INTERVIEWER
1 FEMALE AUDIENCE MEMBER
1 DAN BALZ
1 CHRISTINA GREER
1 CHARLOTTESVILLE ALT-RIGHT PROTESTERS
1 BILL O’REILLY
1 BARBARA RES
1 ALYSSA FARAH GRIFFIN
2024 Uncommitted Democratic voters
Sep. 20th, 2024 09:03 amToday's headlines included something about the Uncommitted Movement non-endorsement of Harris (due to Biden-Harris Israel-Gaza recent policy). I say this is a nothing burger. As a proxy, let's look at the uncommitted voters in the 2024 Democratic primaries and compare them to 1996 and 2012 (last two times sitting Democratic presidents ran for a 2nd term) and notice that there were more uncommitted voters in 2012 and slightly less in 1996 (percentage wise):
| Year | Pct Uncommitted | President's pct of total primary voters |
|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 3.8% | 89% |
| 2012 | 6% | 88.9% |
| 2024 | 4.25% | 87.1% |
So, Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris. Democrats will likely have a very tough time getting their candidate's name on the ballot in Ohio (problem being the DNC late date, a problem that existed before Biden dropped out):
There are ways to resolve this problem, as two other states with early deadlines have already done. Washington state officials said they will accept a provisional certification of Biden’s nomination before the convention. And Alabama’s Legislature shortened its deadline so that Biden could qualify for the ballot there.
Neither solution seems likely in Ohio, where Republicans may be seeking to make life harder for the Democrats’ presidential nominee. The attorney general says the state can’t accept a provisional certification. And the Legislature couldn’t come up with a timely fix to the law.
Ohio laws generally take effect 90 days after passage. So a change to the deadline had to pass by May 9, but the Legislature wound up doing nothing.
Some say that Biden had a bad night (recovering from a cold). What I and many others saw was a person in obvious mental decline, so much that a lot of Democrats are urging Biden to step down and let someone younger take his place before the convention. Jon Stewart's coverage of the debate (especially from minute 4 to 8 is very telling, and his closing was right on target).
Apparently, the 5.9% of Sanders supporters who voted for Trump had higher Modern Sexism (MS) scores (16/25) than those that voted for HRC (10.4/25) or than all Democrats that voted for HRC (12.9/25). The average/neutral MS score is 15. It is interesting to note that of the defectors (who had higher MS scores than those that voted for HRC), 7.7% voted for Gary Johnson (Libertarian), 4.6% voted for Jill Stein (Green), 4% voted for write-ins and another 4% did not vote at all in the general election.


Is all the hubbub around Trump potentially winning the 2024 election, missing the larger story and long trend in American history? Here are a few interplaying undercurrents that have brought Trump to the forefront (and will continue to bring other populists like him on both sides of the political spectrum, e.g. Bernie Sanders):
The continuous offshoring of the US economy (since Nixon): maquiladoras, and others through free-trade agreements (e.g. WTO, NAFTA/USMCA) that is most visible in imbalances of trade or Fed Debt ballooning and foreign ownership
The relentless destruction of unions and the pauperization of the lower middle class (e.g. compare 1950s vs 2020s blue-collar workers)
The anti-intellectual undercurrent that was weaponized into divide-and-conquer strategies that resulted in the rural underemployed mostly white protestant conservative lower middle class pitted against the non-rural liberal non-protestant upper middle class and non-white minorities on emotional "value" issues (e.g. abortion, second amendment, religion, LGBTQ+, affirmative action, misogyny, libertarian principles, virulent anti-leftism).
The undue influence of deep-pocketed lobbyists (e.g. military industry, lawyers, financiers, banks) and moneyed opinion shapers (foreign and domestic) over legislation, public spending and mainstream narrowband discourse
The systemic inequalities (e.g. voting mechanisms, SCOTUS, Senate, gerrymandering) that favor certain classes over others (e.g. rich, white)
The chronic underfunding and sapping of the social net (e.g. healthcare, pensions) and public infrastructure (e.g. education, public media, public transport)
The Daily podcast (from NY Times) discusses the terrible polling results for Biden in the swing states (behind the orange stain in 5 of 6 states). Summary:
Other coverage of this poll: The Hill, Politico, NY Times oped, CNN.
- "Trump Tops Biden in Nevada by 11 Points; Georgia by 7; Arizona by 5; Pennsylvania by 4; Michigan by 3; Biden Up in Wisconsin by 3 Points"
- If Democrat Other than Biden Runs Against Trump, the Dem Leads in All 6 States: WI by 12 Points; PA by 10; AZ by 8; GA & MI by 7; NV by 3
- Across 6 Battleground States: 59% Disapprove of the Job Biden is Doing as President; 71% Say He’s Too Old & 62% Say He Lacks Mental Sharpness to be Effective President; Only 38% Say Trump Too Old to be Effective President & 54% Say He Has Mental Sharpness
Other coverage of this poll: The Hill, Politico, NY Times oped, CNN.
Canadian federal elections
Feb. 28th, 2022 10:23 amBuilding on my 2011 Canadian federal election script and elections.ca's raw election data, I calculated various combined ticket scenarios for all elections between 2006-2019. Not surprisingly, an LP+NDP coalition would have won every time (with majority governments save for 2004 and 2006 elections when they would have won only minority governments). Interestingly, in 2006 a LP+NDP+GP coalition would have won a majority government.
Obviously, the assumption is that people that voted for LP or NDP would have voted for a LP+NDP coalition as well which I am guessing that would hold for 95+% of voters.
This 2016 HBR article delivers the goods: why Trump won and why the Democrats are clueless about the actual very valid reasons for his support (despite all his flaws). Here is the juiciest bit:
Talking about a green deal, social distancing, justice for minorities, healthcare for all will only drive his constituency madder and closer to him. All those are good, but the Dems need to provide something for the WWC too, and free trade and student loan forgiveness ain't it, but better and more middle class jobs and less pandering to the poor and entitled is a good start.
“The thing that really gets me is that Democrats try to offer policies (paid sick leave! minimum wage!) that would help the working class,” a friend just wrote me. A few days’ paid leave ain’t gonna support a family. Neither is minimum wage. WWC men aren’t interested in working at McDonald’s for $15 per hour instead of $9.50. What they want is what my father-in-law had: steady, stable, full-time jobs that deliver a solid middle-class life to the 75% of Americans who don’t have a college degree. Trump promises that. I doubt he’ll deliver, but at least he understands what they need.
Talking about a green deal, social distancing, justice for minorities, healthcare for all will only drive his constituency madder and closer to him. All those are good, but the Dems need to provide something for the WWC too, and free trade and student loan forgiveness ain't it, but better and more middle class jobs and less pandering to the poor and entitled is a good start.













