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ionelvSadly, most recent polls give Trump an edge in Ohio. There a few obvious reasons why this is the case:
1. GOP controlled the state legislature and the SOS office in Ohio for most of the past 28 years. This allowed some shameless gerrymandering: despite an overall 52% vs 47% vote split, GOP captured 12 of 16 (75%) congressional seats in 2018.
2. There are strict laws in Ohio that allow voter roll purging after not voting in past 2 years, change sanctioned by the Supreme Court in a 5-4 decision two years ago :(
3. There is restricted access to early voting (e.g. one polling place per county no matter the population size, e.g. one for all of Franklin County (Columbus and near suburbs), pop. 1.3M or one for all of Cuyahoga (Cleveland) compared to one per each of 40 least populous counties, total pop 1.3M). This works heavily in GOP's favor.
4. The availability of regular polling places heavily favor the GOP as well in Ohio (e.g. 655 people per polling place in the least populated county vs 936 people per polling place in the most populated county).
You can bet that this is happening everywhere a party had their hands at the till in the recent past (e.g. Wisconsin: Democrats got 53% of votes but less than 40% of seats). At national level, it seems that the gerrymandering efforts of both parties cancel themselves out (i.e. overall distribution of seats matches closely the vote split).
The sad truth is that the GOP has tipped the scale in more of the purple/gray states (e.g. Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas) than the Democrats (e.g. Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota) if one looks at 2018 congressional vote counts vs seats, which also gives a hint that these same GOP controlled states might tip more red in the general elections as well.
Apparently, 2018 seats vs vote split was fair, but in 2016 , 2014 , 2012, 2010 it was overweighted in GOP's favor. You'd have to go back to 2008 to find the overweighting in the Democrats' favor. In 2006 the vote vs seats split looked fair, but it was overweighted again in GOP's favor going further back to 2000. So, since 2000, the 2008 congress was overweighted Democratic (when Obamacare passed), 2006 and 2018 were fair splits, but the other seven sessions (2000, 2002, 2004, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016) were overweighted in GOP's favor.
