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Voter Ages and Polls
Sep. 11th, 2024 12:43 pm1. 2020 Voter turnout by age provided by the US Census can be found in table 5: 18-24: 48% of 28.6M voted, 25-44: 55% of 86.4M voted, 45-64: 65.5% of 81.9M voted, 65-74: 73% of 32.9M voted, 75+: 70.2% of 22.3M voted.
2. Sienna/New York Times Sept 8 poll included: 16% of 18-29 year olds, 24% of 30-44 yo, 31% of 45-64 yo, 25% of 65+ yo and 4% who did not reveal age.
Conclusion: Of those 44 and under, roughly 61M voted in 2020 and of those 45 and over, about 93M voted which is a ratio of 65.6 to 100. In Sienna poll, 40% of respondents were 44 and under and 56% were 45 and over which is a ratio of 71.4 to 100 (so younger than 45 voters were overrepresented compared to 2020 voter demographics).
Notes:
1. Sienna/NY Times polls only use phones to contact about 1000 people for their sample which is then corrected for many sampling factors. Ipsos/ABC polls use sample corrections, phone, online and face-to-face as modes of contact and a 1600 sample size (based on many sampling factors).
2. 2016 election postmortems: ipsos, Sienna accuracy in 2016
3. Polls ratings: 538, reddit discussion on late 2023 Sienna poll
2. Sienna/New York Times Sept 8 poll included: 16% of 18-29 year olds, 24% of 30-44 yo, 31% of 45-64 yo, 25% of 65+ yo and 4% who did not reveal age.
Conclusion: Of those 44 and under, roughly 61M voted in 2020 and of those 45 and over, about 93M voted which is a ratio of 65.6 to 100. In Sienna poll, 40% of respondents were 44 and under and 56% were 45 and over which is a ratio of 71.4 to 100 (so younger than 45 voters were overrepresented compared to 2020 voter demographics).
Notes:
1. Sienna/NY Times polls only use phones to contact about 1000 people for their sample which is then corrected for many sampling factors. Ipsos/ABC polls use sample corrections, phone, online and face-to-face as modes of contact and a 1600 sample size (based on many sampling factors).
2. 2016 election postmortems: ipsos, Sienna accuracy in 2016
3. Polls ratings: 538, reddit discussion on late 2023 Sienna poll
